Argentina as banana republic, thought leader

Argentina may be sliding into a familiar pattern, which other countries could follow, Adrian Pocobelli says at Midas Letter:

Significantly, central planners have also imposed restrictions on imports into the  country in favor of products made in Argentina, while forex controls have been imposed to reduce the outflow of money outside of the country. This is leading to the country’s return to its previous reputation as a “banana republic” a mere decade after a hyperinflation that sent many of its citizens abroad in search of opportunity. History may repeat, as the Argentinean central bank reported that $483 million in foreign currency reserves had left the country in the span of a week at the end of May. With the rise in discontent among the world’s populations and the increasing polarization of the political spectrum, one has to assume that the Argentinean model could be repeated elsewhere in South America, as well as in Africa, although perhaps for different reasons.

Communists resurgent in Philippines

The New People's Army, the Communist Party of the Philippines’ military wing, is becoming more assertive, marking a security setback for the Philippines, which must also contend with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the Moro National Liberation Front, Jacob Zenn says at Global Terrorism Analysis:

The Philippines is waging three distinct counterinsurgency operations in Mindanao simultaneously: one against the Moro Muslim armies of the MILF and the MNLF which view the government as invaders and colonizers; a second against the quasi-jihadi and quasi-criminal Abu Sayyaf which views the government as infidels; and a third against the NPA, which views the government as imperialists and exploiters. The NPA’s resurgence adds another layer of complexity to the Philippines’ security situation at a time when the country would otherwise have reason to be optimistic about the prospects for stability and unity given the progress in negotiations with the MILF and the elimination of Abu Sayyaf’s leadership.

 

Mali as a jihadist magnet

An intervention in Mali by the Economic Community of West African States could prove a recruiting tool for jihadists, Micha'el Tanchum  says at Tel Aviv Notes:

The military intervention of ECOWAS, particularly if assisted by France, would enable al- Qa’ida to reframe the Touareg insurgency, especially its own participation, within its global jihadist narrative of the “near enemy” and the “far enemy.” If an ECOWAS intervention should prove to be insufficiently swift and decisive or not conclude with an accord that genuinely accommodates Touareg grievances within a Malian national framework, Mali may well attract jihadists from around the continent, and thus further AQIM and Boko Haram’s ambition to create a coordinated jihadist movement across West Africa.

Politics before prosperity in Argentina

Maintaining the Peronist movement comes first for Argentina's leadership and at the cost of transparency and the country's long-term prospects for creating prosperity, Britta Crandall says at Freedom House:

The clampdown on press freedom is not the only way in which the executive branch has sought to concentrate power and diminish transparency. In the economic field, the government has consistently misrepresented the level of inflation. To mask rising rates caused by heavy public spending and energy subsidies, the president replaced statisticians working at the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) with political appointees beginning in 2007. And in the face of fines and government threats, independent economists have been forced to stop publishing their own estimates, which place the real rate of inflation at close to double the official rate. The Economist went so far as to remove Argentina’s official inflation rate from its indicators page, calling the INDEC figures a “bogus” attempt to “deceive voters and swindle investors.” In addition to the unsettling reality that holders of inflation-linked bonds have been shortchanged by billions of dollars, the government’s silencing of independent inflation statistics represents censorship in its most blatant form.